Prediction of distribution of potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China based on MaxEnt model

【Objective】This study aimed to elucidate the distribution of habitats and potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China under historic， contemporary， and future climate change scenarios， thereby providing references for current accurate control and regional governance of Apolygus lucorum， and theoretical support for the future occurrence trend of Apolygus lucorum in China under the background of global warming.【Method】Based on the data from the 80 distribution points of Apolygus lucorum in China and 7 climate factors mean monthly temperature range （bio2）， isothermality （bio3）， variance of temperature variance （bio4）， mean temperature of wettest quarter （bio8）， precipitation of driest month （bio14）， precipitation seasonality （bio15）， precipitation of warmest quarter （bio18）， the MaxEnt model was used to analyze habitats and potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China at historic periods last interglacial （LIG）， last glacial maximum （LGM）， mid-Holocene （MH）， contemporary （1970-2000） and in the future （2030s， 2050s， 2070s， 2090s） under different climate scenarios （SSP1-2.6， SSP3-7.0， SSP5-8.5）.【Result】The most important environmental factors affecting Apolygus lucorum distribution were bio8， bio18， bio2， and bio15， with the suitable ranges of 24.14-35.69 ℃， 417.46-2148.40 mm， 3.37-10.70 ℃， and 98.56%-159.53% respectively. Under historic climate conditions， Apolygus lucorum was mainly distributed in southern China； under contemporary climate scenarios， the habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China were mainly concentrated in eastern and central China. Compared with the contemporary period， the total areas of habitats in the LIG， LGM， and MH were reduced. Under the future climate conditions， the total area of habitats for Apolygus lucorum would be increasing， and the areas of moderately and highly suitable habitats gradua-lly increased with the increase of carbon dioxide emissions under different climate scenarios， and the future climate change would lead to obvious expansions of the potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum to western and northern China.【Conclusion】The distribution of habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China is relatively extensive. Under current climate conditions， the habitats are mainly distributed in eastern and central China， but future climate change would lead to expansions of the habitats for Apolygus lucorum to western and northern China. Such expansion would expand the damage caused by Apolygus lucorum， posing a greater threat to agricultural production.