FU Wei, WU Lu, HU Yue-xiang, LUO Ming-can. 2025: Research on the spatial effect of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity in China. Journal of Southern Agriculture, 56(7): 2338-2350. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2025.07.027
Citation: FU Wei, WU Lu, HU Yue-xiang, LUO Ming-can. 2025: Research on the spatial effect of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity in China. Journal of Southern Agriculture, 56(7): 2338-2350. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2025.07.027

Research on the spatial effect of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity in China

  • Objective This study aimed to elucidate the spatial effect of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity, provide evidence for reducing agricultural carbon emission and supporting urban development in China, and concomitantly offer new approaches for formulating strategies of agricultural carbon emission reduction.Method Based on the in-depth analysis of the mechanism of effects of new urbanization on the agricultural carbon emission intensity, the panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2012 to 2021 were collected (Hongkong, Macao, and Taiwan were excluded for data inaccessibility). The agricultural carbon emission intensity was calculated based on three major carbon sources: crop cultivation, livestock farming, and agricultural production activities. Subsequently, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) was employed to analyze the effects of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity.Result Population urbanization, social urbanization, economic urbanization, and ecological urbanization directly contributed to reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity. Meanwhile, their intrinsic spatial dependency determined the manifestations of spatial urbanization. Furthermore, through the transmission mechanisms—land factor underutilization, digital economy and information technology support, and demand-driven orientation toward high-quality agricultural products—also promoted agricultural modernization and green development, thereby reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity. The agricultural carbon emissions in China exhibited a macro-level evolution characteristic of “rising-falling-rising” with differences in every stage: from 2012 to 2016, crop plantation < livestock farming < agricultural production activity; from 2017 to 2020, livestock farming < crop plantation < agricultural production activity; and in 2021, agricultural production activity < crop plantation < livestock farming. The temporal fixed effect analysis based on SDM model revealed that the agricultural industrial structure and rural labor force had a highly significant negative impact on agricultural carbon emission intensity (P<0.01, the same below), while the agricultural support level and degree of agricultural mechanization had a highly significant positive impact on agricultural carbon emission intensity. Moreover, the spatial spillover effect analysis found that new urbanization had a highly significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity in the local or neighboring regions, natural environment enhanced agricultural carbon emission intensity in both local and neighboring regions, while the degree of agricultural mechanization had a highly significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity in neighboring regions. 【Suggestion】Given that new urbanization could inhibit agricultural carbon emission intensity, it is recommended to formulate carbon reduction strategies by improving the agricultural industrial structure, advancing agricultural carbon emission reduction technologies, and enhancing urbanization, the specific measures include: (1) strengthen research and exchange on agricultural carbon emission reduction technologies to reduce low-carbon emission comprehensively; (2) control the input of agricultural production factors to promote green agricultural development; (3) advance the layout of new urbanization to enhance land use efficiency.
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