Influencing factors and export efficiency of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries based on stochastic frontier gravity model

【Purpose】To empirically analyze the influencing factors and export efficiency of vegetable exports from China to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership（RCEP）countries，and to measure the potential for expanding vegetable exports，which could provide reference for formulating industrial policies and optimizing the export structure.【Method】Based on the data of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries from 2002 to 2022，the study introduced the production function’s frontier into the gravity model while controlling the influencing factors of the traditional gravity model and the factors affecting non-efficiency terms. On the basis of testing the applicability of the model，the study empirically analyzed the influencing factors of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries using both two-step method and one-step method，and measured the exports efficiency and potential for expansion of vegetable exports trade. 【Result】The GDP ratio between RCEP countries and China，the ratio of agricultural value-added between RCEP countries and China，China’s per capita agricultural value-added，border adjacency，shared language use，and the signing of free trade agreements all effectively increased the scale of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries，while geographical distance between the two countries restrained the export scale. In trade non-efficiency terms，the logistics performance，political stability，and economic freedom of RCEP countries all had negative impact on trade non-efficiency terms，effectively enhancing the efficiency of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries. From 2002 to 2022，the efficiency of vegetable exports trade from China to RCEP countries was low and showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing；the efficiency of exports trade to developing RCEP countries was higher than the overall exports trade efficiency and was still on an upward trend；while the efficiency of exports to developed RCEP countries was lower than the overall export efficiency and was on a downward trend. Countries with higher exports trade efficiency of vegetables to RCEP countries included Japan，Thailand，Singapore and New Zealand，while those with lower exports trade efficiency included Korea，Cambodia，Laos，Myanmar，and the Philippines. Considering both exports efficiency and scale，countries with larger potential for expansion include Korea，Japan，Vietnam，Myanmar and the Philippines.【Suggestion】To take the opportunity of signing RCEP to promote the integrated development of RCEP countries and increase the level of freedom and convenience within the region to enhance the efficiency of vegetable exports trade from China to RCEP countries. Meanwhile，to optimize the export market structure according to the different vegetable consumption demands of each RCEP member country，and maximize the potential for vegetable exports.