Impact of agricultural credit on agricultural economic growth: Empirical evidence from transnational panel data

【Objective】 The research analyzed the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural economic growth based on transnational panel data, and provided reference for breaking through the predicament of fund shortage faced by agricultural economic growth and promoting rural revitalization.【Method】 Macro data(agriculture, credit, population, etc.) of 102 countries (regions) from 2010 to 2021 were selected to build a panel data fixed effect model to verify the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural economic growth. The robustness test was conducted by changing measurement method and the explained variable, and lagging the explanatory variable. The endogeneity test was performed through the instrumental variable method. The heterogeneity analysis was carried out by grouping sample countries (region) by income level.【Result】 The empirical results proved that agricultural credit had an extremely significant positive impact on agricultural economic growth worldwide (P<0.01, the same below). The validity of these results was verified by robustness test and endogeneity test. In addition, as control variables, rural population, arable land, fertilizer, pesticide, and number of internet users had significant positive impacts on agricultural economic growth. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the impact of agricultural credit on agricultural economic growth was heterogeneous among countries and regions with different income levels. Agricultural credit had asignificant positive effect in high-income, upper-middle income, and lower-middle income countries and regions, but it was not significant in low-income countries and regions(P>0.05). It showed that low income level would lead to serious shortage of agricultural credit input.【Suggestion】 It is suggested to expand the scale of agricultural credit, vigorously promote microfinance; innovate agricultural credit products and services, optimize credit process; improve the diversified investment mechanism for rural vitalization, give the market a decisive role in allocating resources; actively improve the allocative efficiency of agricultural credit in resources and provide greater credit support on food security.