Influencing factors of rural land transfer in major grainproducing areas of Henan based on Logit-Tobit model

【Objective】Influencing factors in farmers’cultivated land transfer behavior and scale were analyzed to provide a policy basis for promoting rural land transfer and agricultural moderate scale management.【Method】Based on survey data from 8 counties（cities）in Henan and using 11 specific variables derived from characteristics of the householder，household management and regional economic characteristics，the Logit model was used to analyze whether farmers were transferring out or transferring in and the Tobit model was used to further analyze influencing factors of the actual scale of the transfers.【Result】The result showed that the factors affecting transfer-out and transfer-in were different. However，the factors affecting transfer behavior between transfer scales are basically the same，but with different significance levels. The main factors identified to have a significant positive influence on transfer-out were non-agricultural income， transfer period，land rent and the dummy variable of village collective organizing transfer. Of these，the proportion of nonagricultural income and transfer period had a significant level of 5% on transfer-out behavior and scale. The main factors that had negative significant influence on transfer-in were non-agricultural income and land rent，while positive significant influence were transfer period，family agricultural labor force，the dummy variable of family owning large-medium ized agricultural machinery and the region type. Of these，the independent variables including the proportion of non-agricultural income，transfer period and labor force had a significant level of 5% on transfer-in behavior and scale.【Suggestion】 Therefore，in order to promote rural land transfer and appropriate scale operation，the government should focus on these main influential factors and promote rural labor force to engage in secondary and tertiary industries，increase financial and other supportive measures for new agricultural business entities，give full play to the intermediary and contract management role of collective economic organizations and to adjust the rent level timely and reasonably.