Price volatility risk of citrus market in China based on perishable characteristics

【Objective】It was great significant to analyze the risk characteristics of fluctuations from fruit prices based on perishability for learning the regularities of citrus markets and promoting the sustainability of citrus industry in China. 【Method】Based on daily data from January 1^st，2016 to December 31^st，2020，VaR，GARCH and its deuterogenic model EGARCH were applied to study the risk characteristics of price fluctuations from citrus market such as tangerine，sugar tangerine，reed orange，navel orange，sweet orange and Shatian pomelos from a perspective of perishability in China. 【Result】The perishable property was an important influencing factor of the risk of citrus price fluctuation，that was，compared with the weakly perishable citrus fruits，the strongly perishable citrus fruit price fluctuated more and more frequently. The analysis of value at risk showed that under confidence level of 90%，the risk value of price fluctuations of various types of citrus in China exceeded the safety threshold level significantly，and the price risk of rise and fall of forced perishable citrus was significantly higher than that of weak perishable citrus，which indicated the risk of price fluctuation of various types was closely related to the strength of perishable characteristics on citrus. The analysis of risk characteristics showed price fluctuations of various types of citrus had strong clustering，but the clustering degree of price fluctuations of forcedperishable citrus was generally greater than that of weak perishable citrus，which making its price risk more difficult to predict. The price fluctuations of various citrus were all asymmetry，furthermore，the response of price fluctuations of forced perishable citrus to information shocks of negativity was greater than that of weak perishable citrus prices which caused the price risks in citrus market be more likely to be drawn into a violent concussion.【Suggestion】Establish an early warning mechanism for price fluctuations in citrus market to monitor the market risks in a timely manner；promote the facility construction of citrus storage and preservation to stabilize the supplies and price fluctuations in citrus market；implement a differentiated insurance mechanism in citrus market to reduce the market risks in citrus operation.