Influential factors of beef production in China based on spatial effect

【Objective】 In order to explore the spatial correlation of beef production in China, to clarify the spatial factors affecting beef production, to provide decision support for beef production layout planning in China and provide theoretical basis for improving beef self-sufficiency in China.【Method】 From the perspective of spatial effect, based on the spatial panel data of 30 provinces in China(not included Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2010 to 2019, the spatial Durbinmodel was used to investigate the spatial correlation and influencing factors of beef production.【Result】 From 2010 to 2019, the spatial correlation characteristics of beef production in China were significant, and Moran's I values were all greater than 0.200. From 2017 to 2019, the spatial correlation gradually increased, and the Moran's I value increased from 0.229 to 0.256. From the regional perspective, beef production in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Yunnan showed a high concentration trend. Considering the influencing factors of beef production, feed richness and grassland area in theprovince had significant positive effects on beef production.The spatial spillover effects of beef slaughter rate and per capita GDP in neighboring provinces had a significant positive impact on local beef production, with per capita GDP far exceeding other variables, with spillover effect coefficient of 0.752. While the spatial spillover effects of non-agricultural employment opportunities and traffic accessibility had a significant inhibitory effect on local beef production, with spillover effect coefficient of -0.953. Local and neighboring provinces' price expectations and comparative advantages of animal husbandry jointly promoted local beef production.【Suggestion】 In order to further improve the beef production in China, the government should grasp the changing law of beef cattle, and stimulate the beef production potential in the western China on the basis of stabilizing the beef production in northeastern China and central plains;strengthen regional technical cooperation, give play to the role of radiation in highproducing areas, and improve the national beef supply level;reasonably arrange the transportation route, improve the beef market mechanism, and realize the rational allocation of beef products among provinces;pay attention to environmental joint management and realize green and sustainable development of beef cattle production.