Convergence of forestry total factor productivity of China

【Objective】This paper conducted empirical research on the convergence of forestry total factor productivity of China, which was of great significance for grasping the development gap of provincial forestry and seeking balanced development.【Method】Based on China's provincial forestry data from 2006 to 2018, this paper first selected the forestry input-output indexes, and used the DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the total factor productivity of provincial forestry. Based on the calculation results, the common panel, spatial error model(SEM) and spatial autoregressive model(SAR) were constructed. The model performed absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence test on forestry total factor productivity.【Result】China's forestry total factor productivity was generally stable from 2006 to 2018, but forestry total factor productivity declined in 2018, 2010, and 2015, mainly due to the impact of natural disasters and financial crises, and the productivity was lower than 1.000. At the same time, China's forestry total factor productivity had absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence, It showed that the gap of provincial forestry total factor productivity has been narrowing. From the point of view of convergence speed, the absolute β convergence test results showed thatafter adding spatial factors into ordinary panel model and half-life cycle, thehalf-life cycle changed from 0.0457 to 0.0692(SEM) and 0.0576(SAR);the catch-up period changed from 19.363 to 13.541(SEM) and 15.650(SAR), the speed of convergence has been greatly accelerated, and the time limit for catching up has been greatly shortened, indicating that the spatial effect has played a role in promoting the regional convergence of China's forestry total factor productivity. The result of the conditional β convergence test showed that after adding the four variable coefficients, the forestry total factor productivity still had convergence, and the convergence speed was faster than before, and the half life cycle was also greatly shorter than before. However, the coefficients of afforestation capacity and forestry protection capacity were large.The coefficients of human capital and foreign investment were small, and the role was not obvious. Therefore, the basic level of forestry development in each region, the level of human capital, foreign investment, afforestation and forest protection, and other factors all played a role in promoting the convergence of regional forestry total factor productivity.【Suggestion】Each region should give full play to its own geographical advantages and regional characteristics, adjust measures to local conditions, promote the rapid development of forestry economy. Increase human capital and foreign investment, pay attention to the professionalization and systematization of talent team building, encourage and supervise foreign investment in parallel, break regional restrictions and promote the free flow of factors, and achieve a balanced forestry economic development and ecological value.