Prediction of potential suitable areas of Gynostemma pentaphyllum(Thunb.) Makino based on MaxEnt model

【Objective】Gynostemma pentaphyllum(Thunb.) Makino is an important medicine food homologous plant. Studying its potential distribution in China is helpful to provide basis for the introduction and planting of G. pentaphyllum.【Method】Combined with the geographic distribution data and bioclimatic variable data of G. pentaphyllum, ArcGIS 10.3 software and MaxEnt model were used to predict the current potential distribution area of the species in China. Based on Jackknife test and Pearson correlation analysis, the key environmental factors affecting the growth of G. pentaphyllum were screened, and the future distribution pattern under climate change, which were medium and low emission(PCR4.5) and high emission(PCR8.5) climate scenarios.【Result】The prediction results were highly in accordance with the actual condition. By the Jackknife test, it was found that annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest month, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month were the main factors affecting the distribution of G. pentaphyllum which were with the cumulative contribution of 92.9%. The most suitable annual precipitation for the distribution of G. pentaphyllum was between 960 and 2220 mm, the precipitation of driest month was> 10 mm, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month was between-5 to 8 ℃. At present, it was mainly distributed in the south of China, with an area of 2183000 km². The extremely suitable area and the highly suitable area formed two parts in the Daba-Wuling mountains area and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain. In the 2050s, the total area of suitable areas for G. pentaphyllum would change slightly under climate change. However, the area of suitable areas of different levels would change obviously. The north point of the suitable area would extend from the Shandong Peninsula to the Liaoning Peninsula. Under the RCP4.5 climate scenario, the areas of extremely and highly suitable areas would increase from the current 251000 km² and 461000 km² to 429000 km² and 613000 km² respectively, and the areas of moderately and lowly suitable areas would decrease by 42000 km² and 120000 km² respectively. Under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, the areas of extremely and highly suitable areas would increase to 603000 km² and 659000 km² respectively, and the areas of moderately and lowly suitable areas would further decrease. Under the two climate scenarios, the center of gravity of the suitable area would move to the northeast, among which the extremely suitable area would move obviously eastward. Under the RCP4.5 climate scenario, its center of gravity would move 115.4 km eastward, and under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, its center of gravity would move further eastward by 195.1 km.【Suggestion】Based on geographic information technology, the regionalization research of traditional Chinese medicine agriculture should be strengthened and thus the best suitable areas for planting should be also established. Additionally, a cooperative development mechanism between the government, enterprises, and scientific research institutions should be established to promote planting scale and industrial modernization scientifically and effectively.