牛海霞, 李文龙. 2024: 欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国农产品贸易的影响. 南方农业学报, 55(3): 899-908. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2024.03.029
引用本文: 牛海霞, 李文龙. 2024: 欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国农产品贸易的影响. 南方农业学报, 55(3): 899-908. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2024.03.029
NIU Hai-xia, LI Wen-long. 2024: Impact of European Union carbon border adjustment mechanism on China’s agricultural product trade. Journal of Southern Agriculture, 55(3): 899-908. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2024.03.029
Citation: NIU Hai-xia, LI Wen-long. 2024: Impact of European Union carbon border adjustment mechanism on China’s agricultural product trade. Journal of Southern Agriculture, 55(3): 899-908. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-1191.2024.03.029

欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国农产品贸易的影响

Impact of European Union carbon border adjustment mechanism on China’s agricultural product trade

  • 摘要: 【目的】测算我国农产品贸易隐含碳,分析欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)对我国农产品贸易的影响,为我国国内农产品生产流通和国际农产品进出口政策制定提供参考依据。【方法】基于GTAP-E数据库构建投入产出表,利用投入产出法测算我国各农产品贸易隐含碳,并基于最新的欧盟CBAM实施要点设计模拟情景,分析欧盟碳关税对我国农产品贸易的影响。【结果】欧盟的碳关税将改变我国农产品生产结构,使得大部分农产品产值出现小幅增加,且征税行业覆盖范围越大,产值增加幅度越大;对出口额的影响随着征税行业覆盖率的变化而变化,当仅对重工业征收碳关税时,我国农产品出口额均有所增长,当对包含农产品部门的所有行业征收碳关税时,我国对欧盟出口额较大的高碳农产品部门出口额则由上升转为下降。欧盟的碳关税将改变我国农产品进出口市场结构,当征税范围覆盖农产品部门后,我国农产品出口逐渐由欧盟市场转移到日本、美国、东盟和非洲等贸易伙伴国,进口逐渐由欧盟市场转移到东盟国家、金砖国家和其他国家。【建议】欧盟实施CBAM对我国农产品生产和贸易产生不利影响,直接导致我国出口企业贸易成本增加,属于披着“绿色外衣”的非关税壁垒。建议从3个方面发力给予应对:①构建全产业链体系,提高国际市场议价能力;②向低碳农业转型,发展绿色农业;③完善国内碳价体系,提升与国际接轨能力。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】To calculate the hidden carbon in China’s segmented agricultural product trade, analyze the impact of the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM) on China’s agricultural product trade, and provide reference basis for domestic agricultural product production and circulation as well as international agricultural product import and export policy formulation. 【Method】Based on the GTAP-E database, an input-output table was constructed, and the input-output method was used to calculate the implied carbon in China’s agricultural product trade. A simulation scenario was designed based on the latest European Union CBAM implementation points to analyze the impact of European Union carbon tariffs on China’s agricultural product trade. 【Result】The carbon tariffs imposed by the European Union would change the production structure of agricultural products in China, resulting in a slight increase in the output value of most agricultural products. The larger the coverage of the tax industry, the greater the increase in output value; the impact on export volume varied with the coverage of taxable industries. When carbon tariffs were imposed only on heavy industries, the export volume of China’s agricultural products increased. When carbon tariffs were imposed on all industries including the agricultural product sector, the export volume of China’s high carbon agricultural product sector, which had a larger export volume to the European Union, changed from an increase to a decrease. The carbon tariffs imposed by the European Union would change the structure of China’s agricultural product import and export market. When the taxation scope covered the agricultural product sector, China’s agricultural product exports would gradually shift from the European Union market to other trading partner countries such as Japan, America, ASEAN, and Africa, while imports would gradually shift from the European Union market to ASEAN countries, BRICS countries, and other countries. 【Suggestion】The implementation of CBAM by the European Union has a negative impact on China’s agricultural production and trade, directly leading to an increase in trade costs for Chinese export enterprises, which is a nontariff barrier disguised as“ green”. Suggestions for responding from three aspects:①building a full industry chain system to enhance international market bargaining power;②transforming towards low-carbon agriculture and developing green agriculture;③improve the domestic carbon pricing system and enhance the ability to align with international standards.

     

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