基于随机前沿引力模型分析我国对RCEP国家蔬菜出口的影响因素及出口效率

Influencing factors and export efficiency of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries based on stochastic frontier gravity model

  • 摘要: 【目的】实证分析我国对《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(简称RCEP)国家蔬菜出口的影响因素及出口效率,测算蔬菜出口可拓展空间,为制定产业政策及优化出口结构提供参考依据。【方法】基于2002—2022年我国对RCEP国家蔬菜出口数据,将生产函数中的前沿面引入引力模型中,同时控制传统引力模型的影响因素和非效率项的影响因素,在模型适用性检验的基础上,分别采用两步法和一步法实证分析我国对RCEP国家蔬菜出口的影响因素,并测算蔬菜出口贸易效率和出口可拓展空间。【结果】RCEP国家与我国GDP比值、RCEP国家与我国农业增加值比值、我国人均农业增加值、两国接壤、使用共同语言及签订自由贸易协定等能有效提升我国对RCEP国家的蔬菜出口规模,两国地理距离则抑制蔬菜出口规模。在贸易非效率项中,RCEP国家物流综合绩效、政治稳定性和经济自由度对贸易非效率项均呈负影响,能有效提升我国对RCEP国家的蔬菜出口效率。2002—2022年我国对RCEP国家蔬菜出口贸易效率偏低,且呈先上升后下降的波动变化趋势;我国对RCEP发展中国家的蔬菜出口贸易效率高于整体出口贸易效率,尚处于增长趋势;我国对RCEP发达国家的蔬菜出口效率则低于整体出口效率,处于下降趋势。我国对RCEP国家蔬菜出口效率较高的国家有日本、泰国、新加坡和新西兰,出口贸易效率较低的国家包括韩国、柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸和菲律宾;综合出口贸易效率及规模来看,可拓展空间较大的国家是韩国、日本、越南、缅甸和菲律宾。【建议】借助签订RCEP的契机,推进RCEP国家融合发展,提高区域内自由便利程度,以提高我国对RCEP国家蔬菜出口贸易效率;同时,根据RCEP各成员国的蔬菜消费需求差异,优化出口市场结构,最大限度地挖掘蔬菜出口潜力。

     

    Abstract: 【Purpose】To empirically analyze the influencing factors and export efficiency of vegetable exports from China to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)countries,and to measure the potential for expanding vegetable exports,which could provide reference for formulating industrial policies and optimizing the export structure.【Method】Based on the data of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries from 2002 to 2022,the study introduced the production function’s frontier into the gravity model while controlling the influencing factors of the traditional gravity model and the factors affecting non-efficiency terms. On the basis of testing the applicability of the model,the study empirically analyzed the influencing factors of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries using both two-step method and one-step method,and measured the exports efficiency and potential for expansion of vegetable exports trade. 【Result】The GDP ratio between RCEP countries and China,the ratio of agricultural value-added between RCEP countries and China,China’s per capita agricultural value-added,border adjacency,shared language use,and the signing of free trade agreements all effectively increased the scale of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries,while geographical distance between the two countries restrained the export scale. In trade non-efficiency terms,the logistics performance,political stability,and economic freedom of RCEP countries all had negative impact on trade non-efficiency terms,effectively enhancing the efficiency of vegetable exports from China to RCEP countries. From 2002 to 2022,the efficiency of vegetable exports trade from China to RCEP countries was low and showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing;the efficiency of exports trade to developing RCEP countries was higher than the overall exports trade efficiency and was still on an upward trend;while the efficiency of exports to developed RCEP countries was lower than the overall export efficiency and was on a downward trend. Countries with higher exports trade efficiency of vegetables to RCEP countries included Japan,Thailand,Singapore and New Zealand,while those with lower exports trade efficiency included Korea,Cambodia,Laos,Myanmar,and the Philippines. Considering both exports efficiency and scale,countries with larger potential for expansion include Korea,Japan,Vietnam,Myanmar and the Philippines.【Suggestion】To take the opportunity of signing RCEP to promote the integrated development of RCEP countries and increase the level of freedom and convenience within the region to enhance the efficiency of vegetable exports trade from China to RCEP countries. Meanwhile,to optimize the export market structure according to the different vegetable consumption demands of each RCEP member country,and maximize the potential for vegetable exports.

     

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