动态碳密度视角下黑土区碳储量时空异质性及其影响因素研究

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and influencing factors of carbon stock in black soil region from the perspective of dynamic carbon density

  • 摘要:目的】明确黑土区碳储量时空异质性及其影响因素,并揭示土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,为丰富碳储量测算方法及科学制定固碳政策提供参考依据。【方法】以典型黑土区——哈尔滨市为研究区,利用2000、2010、2020年 3个时期的土地利用与多源碳密度空间数据,采用时间序列分析揭示碳储量演变规律,综合运用重心迁移模型、探索性空间数据分析及冷热点空间统计方法解析其空间分异特征,并通过地理探测器模型识别研究区碳储量影响因素的作用强度及其交互作用。【结果】2000—2020年研究区土地利用类型以耕地和林地为主,且土地利用类型变化剧烈,其中耕地和林地的转出面积仅次于水域的转出面积,主要转向建设用地和未利用地。土地利用变化决定了碳储量的时空格局,碳储量整体上呈下降趋势,由2000年的6.92×108 t下降至2020年的6.60×108 t。研究区土地利用变化碳储量重心向东南方向迁移548.61 m,其中2010—2020年的迁移距离最明显,达451.36 m。基于土地利用变化的碳储量热点区较集中且呈扩大趋势,而冷点区相对分散且呈缩小趋势。研究区土地利用变化碳储量受自然环境和社会经济因素的共同作用,其中高程、土地利用程度、距县中心距离、坡度等因素的解释力较强;因素间交互作用以双因素增强为主,且自然环境和社会经济的交互作用对碳储量的解释力强于单一因素内部的交互作用。【结论】2000—2020年研究区土地利用变化碳储量总体上呈下降态势,碳储量损失主要源于高碳汇土地利用类型(水域和林地)向低碳汇土地利用类型(未利用地、耕地和建设用地)转化,标志着人类活动驱动的土地利用变化已成为影响碳储量的关键因素。此外,研究区碳储量变化具有明显的空间集聚性,其空间格局进一步凸显人类活动对碳库空间重构的尺度效应。自然约束—人文扰动交互作用是碳储量变化的双引擎驱动模型,其中高程、距县中心距离、坡度及土地利用程度是影响碳储量空间异质性的重要因素,故建议对坡度—距离耦合高风险区实施耕地退耕优先策略。

     

    Abstract:Objective】This study aimed to clarify the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon stocks in black soil regions and the influencing factors, and reveal how land use change affected carbon storage, so as to enrich carbon stock estimation methods and provide reference for formulating appropriate carbon sequestration policies.【Method】Harbin City, a representative black soil region, was the study area. The land use data and multi-source spatial carbon density data in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were employed to reveal the change pattern of carbon stock using time series analysis. The center of gravity migration model, exploratory spatial data analysis, and coldspot/hotspot spatial statistical method were used to characterize spatial differentiation. The geographical detector model was applied to identify the intensity and interaction of influencing factors for carbon stock in the study area.【Result】From 2000 to 2020, cropland and forestland were the dominant land use types in the study area, with pronounced changes occurred, and the areas of land conversion were from cropland and forestland (only second to land conversion from water area), mainly into construction land and unused land. These land use changes shaped the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon stocks, which decreased overall from 6.92×108 t in 2000 to 6.60×108 t in 2020. The center of gravity of carbon stock under land use change shifted 548.61 m southeastward in the study area, with the most pronounced migration distance between 2010 and 2020, reaching 451.36 m. Carbon stock hotspot areas based on land use changes were concentrated and became increasingly expanded, while coldspot areas remained relatively scattered and shrank. Carbon stock under land use change in the study area was commonly influenced by natural environmental and socioeconomic factors, with elevation, land use intensity, distance from county center, and slope exhibiting strong explanatory power. Factor interactions were predominantly characterized by dual-factor enhancement, and interactions between natural and socioeconomic factors explained change in carbon stock more effectively than interactions among factors within a single category.【Conclusion】Between 2000 and 2020, carbon stock under land use change in the study area generally declines, and carbon stock loss is primarily due to the conversion of high-carbon-sink land use types (water areas and forestlands) into low-carbon-sink land use types (unused land, cropland, and construction land), indicating that human-driven land use change has become a key factor influencing carbon stock. Furthermore, carbon stock change shows clear spatial clustering, underscoring the scale-dependent impact of human activities on spatial reorganization of carbon pools. The interaction between natural constraints and human disturbances is a dual-engine driving model for carbon stock change, with elevation, distance from county center, slope, and land use intensity as critical influencing factors of spatial differentiation. Accordingly, it is recommended that cropland retirement should be prioritized in high-risk areas identified by the slope-distance coupling model.

     

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