基于时间—剂量—死亡率(TDM)模型的家蚕BmBDV抗性评价

Evaluation of silkworm resistance to Bombyx mori Bidensovirus (BmBDV) using time-dose-mortality (TDM) model

  • 摘要: 【目的】 建立基于时间—剂量—死亡率(TDM)模型的评价体系,解析家蚕二分浓核病毒(BmBDV)的品种特异性致病规律,为家蚕抗病育种提供精准量化工具。【方法】 选用菁松×皓月和9芙的4龄起蚕幼虫,采用人工添食法接种BmBDV,观察感染后的病理特征;设置病毒浓度梯度(1×105~1×109 ng/μL)处理,记录死亡率。采用TDM模型动态拟合,计算不同感染时间点的半数致死量(LD50)及特定剂量下的致死中时(LT50),并利用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评估模型拟合效果。【结果】9芙和菁松×皓月4龄幼虫接种BmBDV后,5龄第5 d家蚕开始表现感病症状,至5龄第9 d家蚕表现出明显感病症状,病蚕最终因消化功能丧失、营养不良而死亡,尸体干瘪,无典型脓病或软化病的乳白色脓液。从5龄开始家蚕体重发生明显变化,病毒浓度越高,后期家蚕体质量越小。相同接种时间下,随BmBDV浓度升高,家蚕死亡率随之升高,菁松×皓月为易感品系,5龄第2 d死亡率达100%;而9芙抗性较强,5龄第2 d死亡率为66%,明显低于菁松×皓月。TDM模型模拟结果显示,菁松×皓月和9芙累积时间效应参数均随时间推移而增大,但后期变化趋势减小;剂量与时间效应参数的t检验均达极显著水平(P<0.01),剂量效应斜率标准误差均显著低于估计值(P<0.05),预测菁松×皓月与9芙的死亡峰值均出现在接种后第10 d。随着接种时间延长,有效感染所需病毒浓度呈下降趋势,相应的LD50和90%致死量(LD90)同步降低,表明剂量效应随时间的延长而增强。【结论】家蚕对BmBDV的抗性存在品种特异性,9芙表现为超阈值抗性,其机制与体壁发育时序及病毒复制抑制相关。TDM模型成功量化了BmBDV剂量—时间互作效应,LD50随时间递减、LT50随剂量缩短。后续可用1×105 ng/μL DNA的病毒作为平衡防控效果与经济性状的理想接种浓度,为抗病育种及田间病毒管理提供精准操作窗口。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】 To establish an evaluation system based on the time-dose-mortality (TDM) model for dissec-ting the variety-specific pathogenicity of Bombyx mori bidensovirus (BmBDV), thereby providing a precise quantitative tool for silkworm disease-resistant breeding. 【Method】 Fourth-instar larvae of silkworm breeds Jingsong×Haoyue and 9 Fu were used as experimental subjects. BmBDV was inoculated via artificial diet feeding, and pathological characteristics following infection were observed. Larvae were exposed to a gradient of viral concentrations ranging from 1×105 to 1×109 ng/μL, and mortality was recorded at designated time points. The TDM model was applied to dynamically fit the mortality data, enabling calculation of the median lethal concentration (LD50) at different post-inoculation time points and the median lethal time (LT50) at specific viral doses. Model fitting effect was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test. 【Result】 Following BmBDV inoculation in 4th instar larvae of both 9 Fu and Jingsong×Haoyue, disease symptoms first appeared on the 5th d of the 5th instar, with overt clinical signs manifesting by the 9th d of the 5th instar. Infected larvae ultimately died from digestive dysfunction and malnutrition; cadavers were desiccated and shrunken, with no milky exudate characteristic of nuclear polyhedrosis or flacherie. Great body weight divergence was observed from the onset of the 5th instar, with larvae in higher-concentration groups exhibiting lower silkworm body weight. Under identical inoculation schedules, silkworm mortality rate increased monotonically with BmBDV concentration. Jingsong×Haoyue was identified as a susceptible strain, reaching 100% mortality rate by the 2nd d of the 5th instar, whereas 9 Fu demonstrated markedly stronger resistance, with mortality rate of only 66% at the same time point, which was obviously lower than Jingsong×Haoyue. TDM model fitting revealed that the cumulative time-effect parameters of Jingsong×Haoyue and 9 Fu increased progressively over time, though the rate of increase attenuated in later stages. Both dose-effect and time-effect parameters reached extremely significant level in t test (P<0.01), and the standard errors of dose-effect slope estimates were significantly lower than the estimated values (P<0.05). Model predictions indicated that peak mortality in both Jingsong×Haoyue and 9 Fu occurred on the 10th d post-inoculation. As inoculation time extended, the viral concentration required to achieve effective infection declined, with corresponding reductions in both LD50 and 90% lethal concentration (LD90), demonstrating a progressive enhancement of the dose-response effect over time. 【Conclusion】 Resistance to BmBDV in silkworm is breed-specific. 9 Fu exhibits supra-threshold resistance, a phenotype potentially associated with the developmental timing of integument maturation and suppression of viral replication. The TDM model successfully quantifies the dose-time interaction of BmBDV infection, capturing the temporal decline in LD50 and the dose-dependent reduction in LT50. A viral DNA concentration of 1×105 ng/μL is recommended as the optimal inoculation dose, balancing disease control efficacy with preservation of economic traits, providing a precise operational window for disease-resistant breeding programs and field-level virus management.

     

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