河南省烟粉虱监测及适生区预测

Monitoring and prediction of suitable habitat zones of Bemisia tabaci in Henan

  • 摘要: 【目的】 监测和预测烟粉虱在河南省的发生及发展趋势,为当地烟粉虱的精准防控提供理论依据。【方法】 以河南省18个地市不同生态区、不同生境的110个点位20余种寄主植物上采集到的烟粉虱为样本,对其生物型进行鉴定,并统计其为害程度。利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS 10.2对当前和未来2030s(2030—2040年)时期气候变化条件下烟粉虱在河南省的潜在分布进行预测。【结果】河南省露地烟粉虱的生物型均为Q型,在寄主植物茄子、黄瓜、南瓜、红薯上的危害严重,达4级以上。MaxEnt分析发现,影响且适于烟粉虱发生的关键环境因子为温度季节性和年降水量。当前气候条件下,河南省烟粉虱适生区面积为12.62×104 km2,占总面积的75.5%,其中,高适生区位于河南省的北部,面积为4.70×104 km2;中适生区大多位于河南省中部以及北部少数地区,面积为3.83×104 km2;低适生区位于河南省东南部,中西部也有分布;非适生区面积为4.08×104 km2。未来2030s时期不同气候压迫情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)下烟粉虱适生区面积预测结果显示,烟粉虱在河南省的非适生区及中适生区面积均有不同程度的减少,低适生区和高适生区面积均有不同程度的增加。【结论】河南省露地烟粉虱的生物型均为Q型,在茄子、黄瓜、南瓜、红薯上的为害严重;温度季节性和年降水量是影响且适于河南省烟粉虱发生的关键环境因子;随着未来气温的升高,烟粉虱在河南省的分布区域将进一步向中部和南部扩张。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】 To monitor and predict the occurrence and trend of Bemisia tabaci in Henan, thereby providing theoretical support for the precise prevention and control of this pest. 【Method】 Specimens of Bemisia tabaci were col-lected from over 20 host plant species at 110 sampling sites across 18 prefecture-level cities, encompassing various ecological regions and habitats in Henan. The biotypes of the samples were identified, and the degree of infestation was statistically evaluated. On this basis, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS 10.2 software were employed to predict the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Henan under current and future 2030s (2030-2040) period climate change conditions. 【Result】 All the biotypes of Bemisia tabaci found in open fields of Henan were identified as Q-biotype. Severe damage (grade 4 or higher) was observed on host plants including eggplant, cucumber, pumpkin, and sweet potato. MaxEnt analysis indicated that the key environmental factors influencing the occurrence of Bemisia tabaci were temperature seasonality and annual precipitation. Under current climatic conditions, the suitable habitat area for Bemisia tabaci in Henan was 12.62×104 km2, accounting for 75.5% of Henan’s total area. Among them, the high suitable zone was situated in the northern part, with an area of approximately 4.70×104 km2; the moderate suitable zone was primarily located in the central region and a small part of the northern region, encompassing 3.83×104 km2; the low suitable zone was widely distributed in the southeastern region, and central and western region of Henan, the areas of nonsuitable zone covered 4.08×104 km2. The predicted results of the suitable area of Bemisia tabaci under different climate stress scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) in the future 2030s period showed that the nonsuitable zones and medium suitable zones of Bemisia tabaci in Henan would decrease to varying degrees, while the low suitable and high suitable zones would increase to varying degrees. 【Conclusion】 The biotypes of Bemisia tabaci present in the open fields of Henan are all Q-biotype, which inflicts significant infestation on eggplants, cucumbers, pumpkins and sweet potatoes. Seasonal temperature fluctuations and annual precipitation are critical environmental factors that influence the occurrence of Bemisia tabaci. With the anticipated rise in temperatures, the distribution range of Bemisia tabaci in Henan is expected to expand further toward the central and southern regions.

     

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