长江流域农业生态效率时空格局演变及其影响因素分析
Spatial-temporal pattern evolution and influence factors of agricultural ecological efficiency in Yangtze River basin
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摘要: 【目的】 明确长江流域农业生态效率时空格局演变特征及其影响因素,为解决农业经济发展中面临的生态环境问题及实现长江流域“生态优先、绿色发展”战略提供理论依据。【方法】 基于2000—2023年长江流域11个省级行政区(四川、重庆、贵州、云南、湖南、湖北、江西、安徽、江苏、浙江及上海)的相关数据构建农业生态效率评价指标体系,通过非期望产出的超效率SBM模型及核密度估计法探究长江流域农业生态效率的时空格局演变特征,并运用随机森林模型结合排名赋值法及归一化加法分析影响长江流域农业生态效率的因素及其重要性。【结果】 在时间维度上,2000—2023年长江流域农业生态效率整体提升明显,各省级行政区的农业生态效率呈现出稳中向上发展的态势。依据农业生态效率可将长江流域的11个省级行政区划分为3个梯队:上海市农业生态效率稳居第一梯队,其农业生态效率平均值为0.80;江苏省、浙江省、湖南省、湖北省、四川省属于第二梯队,其农业生态效率平均值在0.70~0.80;云南省、安徽省、江西省、重庆市、贵州省处于第三梯队,其农业生态效率平均值低于0.70。在空间维度上,长江流域农业生态效率存在明显的空间差异性,2010—2023年长江流域农业生态效率呈U字形结构,具体表现为下游地区>上游地区>中游地区。在长江流域农业生态效率的影响因素中,农业机械总动力和农业从业人口具有高度重要性,农药使用量、农作物播种面积及化肥使用折纯量具有一般重要性,而有效灌溉面积和农膜使用量的重要性相对较低。但随着时间和空间经济水平的演变,各因素及其交互作用在不同年份呈现不同的作用效果。【建议】发挥区位特色优势,制定差异化农业发展战略;加强区域产业协同,促进关联区域协调发展;聚集新质生产力驱动,持续提升农业生态效率。Abstract: 【Objective】 To clarify the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influence factors of agricultural ecological efficiency in Yangtze River basin, which could provide theoretical basis for solving ecological and environmental problems in agricultural economic development and realizing the “ecology first, green development” strategy in Yangtze River basin.【Method】 Based on data from 11 provincial administrative regions in Yangtze River basin (Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai) from 2000 to 2023, an evaluation index system for agricultural ecological efficiency was constructed. The spatial-temporal evolution characteris-tics of agricultural ecological efficiency in Yangtze River basin were explored using supper-efficiency SBM model with undesirable outputs and kernel density estimation. The random forest model combined with ranking assignment and normalized summation was used to analyze the factors influencing agricultural ecological efficiency in Yangtze River basin and their importance.【Result】 In the temporal dimension, agricultural ecological efficiency in Yangtze River basin improved greatly from 2000 to 2023, with a steady upward trend in all provincial administrative regions. Based on agricultural ecological efficiency, the 11 provincial administrative regions in the Yangtze River basin could be divided into 3 tiers: Shanghai ranked in the first tier with an average agricultural ecological efficiency of 0.80; Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei, and Sichuan belonged to the second tier with average values between 0.70 and 0.80; Yunnan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Chongqing, and Guizhou were in the third tier with average values below 0.70. In the spatial dimension, there were obvious spatial differences in agricultural ecological efficiency in Yangtze River basin. From 2010 to 2023, the efficiency showed U-shaped structure, specifically downstream > upstream > midstream. Among the influence factors, total agricultural machinery power and agricultural labor force were highly important; pesticide usage, crop sown area, and pure fertilizer usage were generally important; while effective irrigation area and plastic film usage were relatively less important. However, with the evolution of time and spatial economic levels, the effects of each factor and their interactions varied across different years. 【Suggestion】 Leverage locational characteristic advantages to formulate differentiated agricultural development strategies; strengthen regional industrial synergy to promote coordinated development among related regions; and focus on new quality productive forces to continuosly promote agricultural ecological efficiency.
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