基于MaxEnt模型预测绿盲蝽在我国的潜在适生区分布

Prediction of distribution of potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China based on MaxEnt model

  • 摘要: 【目的】了解历史、当代及未来气候变化情景下绿盲蝽(Apolygus lucorum)在我国全境的适生区及潜在适生区分布,以期为当前绿盲蝽精准防控及区域化治理提供参考,并为全球气候变暖背景下我国绿盲蝽未来发生趋势的预测预报提供理论支撑。【方法】根据绿盲蝽在我国的80个分布点数据和7个气候因子平均温度月较差(bio2)、等温性(bio3)、温度变化方差(bio4)、最湿季度均温(bio8)、最干月降水量(bio14)、降水季节性变异(bio15)、最暖季度降水量(bio18),利用MaxEnt模型分别预测历史时期末次间冰期(LIG)、末次冰盛期(LGM)、全新世中期(MH)、当代(1970—2000年)和未来(2030s、2050s、2070s、2090s)不同气候情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)下绿盲蝽在我国全境的适生区及潜在适生区,分析气候变化对绿盲蝽分布区域的影响。【结果】影响绿盲蝽分布最主要的环境因子是bio8、bio18、bio2和bio15,其适宜范围分别为24.14~35.69 ℃、417.46~2148.40 mm、3.37~10.70 ℃和98.56%~159.53%。历史气候条件下,绿盲蝽主要分布在我国南部地区;当代气候情景下,绿盲蝽在我国的适生区主要集中在华东和华中地区。与当代相比,末次间冰期、末次冰盛期和全新世中期3个时期的绿盲蝽适生区总面积均有所减少。未来气候条件下,绿盲蝽适生区总面积不断增加,并且中、高适生区面积总体随着不同气候情景二氧化碳排放量的增加而逐渐增加,未来气候变化将导致绿盲蝽在我国西部和北部地区的潜在适生区明显扩张。【结论】绿盲蝽在我国的适生区分布范围较广,当前气候条件下主要分布在华东和华中地区,而未来的气候变化将导致绿盲蝽的适生区向西部和北部扩张。适生区扩张会导致绿盲蝽危害范围增大,对农业生产构成更大威胁。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】This study aimed to elucidate the distribution of habitats and potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China under historic, contemporary, and future climate change scenarios, thereby providing references for current accurate control and regional governance of Apolygus lucorum, and theoretical support for the future occurrence trend of Apolygus lucorum in China under the background of global warming.【Method】Based on the data from the 80 distribution points of Apolygus lucorum in China and 7 climate factors mean monthly temperature range (bio2), isothermality (bio3), variance of temperature variance (bio4), mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8), precipitation of driest month (bio14), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18), the MaxEnt model was used to analyze habitats and potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China at historic periods last interglacial (LIG), last glacial maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH), contemporary (1970-2000) and in the future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s) under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5).【Result】The most important environmental factors affecting Apolygus lucorum distribution were bio8, bio18, bio2, and bio15, with the suitable ranges of 24.14-35.69 ℃, 417.46-2148.40 mm, 3.37-10.70 ℃, and 98.56%-159.53% respectively. Under historic climate conditions, Apolygus lucorum was mainly distributed in southern China; under contemporary climate scenarios, the habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China were mainly concentrated in eastern and central China. Compared with the contemporary period, the total areas of habitats in the LIG, LGM, and MH were reduced. Under the future climate conditions, the total area of habitats for Apolygus lucorum would be increasing, and the areas of moderately and highly suitable habitats gradua-lly increased with the increase of carbon dioxide emissions under different climate scenarios, and the future climate change would lead to obvious expansions of the potential habitats for Apolygus lucorum to western and northern China.【Conclusion】The distribution of habitats for Apolygus lucorum in China is relatively extensive. Under current climate conditions, the habitats are mainly distributed in eastern and central China, but future climate change would lead to expansions of the habitats for Apolygus lucorum to western and northern China. Such expansion would expand the damage caused by Apolygus lucorum, posing a greater threat to agricultural production.

     

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