基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS的新疆玉米适宜性区划研究

Suitability zoning of corn in Xinjiang based on MaxEnt model and ArcGIS

  • 摘要: 【目的】开展基于MaxEnt模型和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)的新疆玉米适宜性区划研究,预测玉米在新疆的适宜性分布区域,分析各环境因子对玉米适宜性分布的影响,为制定合理的玉米种植策略提供科学依据。【方法】将收集到的玉米样本点坐标数据导入ArcGIS,设置1 km缓冲区半径对样本点进行空间筛选。基于气候、土壤和地形环境因子,采用MaxEnt构建玉米地理分布与环境因子间的关系模型,通过受试者工作特征曲线进行模型评价。利用ArcToolbox中的重分类工具,根据玉米存在概率划分玉米适宜种植区。【结果】影响玉米潜在分布贡献率排名前10的环境因子依次为≥10 ℃积温、坡度、最冷季降水量、土壤可用储水量、最暖季平均温度、1—12月水蒸气压、≥0 ℃积温、酸碱度、最热月最高温度和年平均温度,累计贡献率达89.00%。环境因子响应曲线显示,适宜积温范围对玉米生长具有促进作用,积温过高则会抑制其适宜性提升;坡度与玉米适宜性呈负相关;随土壤可用储水量增加,玉米适宜性呈波动上升趋势。玉米在新疆的高适宜区主要分布于天山北麓、伊犁河谷及塔里木盆地的部分区域;中适宜区主要分布于新疆中部和西部,包括部分吐鲁番盆地、巴音郭楞蒙古自治州和昌吉回族自治州的部分区域;低适宜区广泛分布于新疆西北部和南疆部分地区,包括阿勒泰地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州及部分山区;不适宜区分布在塔克拉玛干沙漠、古尔班通古特沙漠及部分高海拔山区。【结论】基于MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS,实现了玉米适宜种植区的精细化划分。≥10 ℃积温、坡度、最冷季降水量、土壤可用储水量、最暖季平均温度、1—12月水蒸气压、≥0 ℃积温、酸碱度、最热月最高温度和年平均温度是主导玉米适宜性的核心环境因子。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】This study aimed to conduct ecological suitability zoning for corn in Xinjiang based on MaxEnt model and geographic information system (ArcGIS). By predicting the suitability distribution areas and analyzing the influence of various environmental factors on corn suitability distribution, the research provided scientific basis for formulating proper planting strategies for corn.【Method】The collected corn sample points were imported into ArcGIS, where a 1 km diameter buffer zone was applied for spatial filtering for sample points. A suite of environmental variables, encompassing climate, soil, and topography, was utilized to construct a MaxEnt model characterizing the relationship between corn geological distribution and environmental factors. Model performance was evaluated using the curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Finally, the reclassify tool within ArcToolbox was employed to categorize the study area into different suitability levels based on the predicted occurrence probabilities.【Result】The results indicated that the top ten environmental factors contributing to the potential distribution of corn were: accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃, slope, precipitation of the coldest season, soil available water capacity, mean temperature of the warmest season, water vapor pressure from January to December, accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃, pH value, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and annual mean temperature, with accumulated contribution rate reaching 89.00%. Environmental factors response curves revealed that optimal accumulated temperature range promoted corn growth, whereas excessive heat exerted an inhibitory effect on its suitability promotion. Corn suitability showed negative correlation with slope and exhibited a fluctuating upward trend as soil available water capacity increased. Corn high-suitability areas in Xinjiang were primarily concentrated along the northern foothills of Tianshan Mountains, Ili River Valley, and parts of Tarim Basin. Moderate-suitability areas were distributed across central and western Xinjiang, including portions of Turpan Basin, Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, and Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture. Low-suitability areas were widely scattered throughout northwestern Xinjiang and parts of southern Xinjiang, including Altay Prefecture, Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture, and certain mountainous regions. Unsuitable areas were located in Taklamakan Desert, Gurbantunggut Desert, and partial high-altitude mountain ranges.【Conclusion】The integration of MaxEnt model and ArcGIS facilitate the refined classification of maize suitability zones in Xinjiang. The study confirms that accumulated temperatures ≥10 ℃, slope, precipitation of the coldest season, soil available water capacity, mean temperature of the warmest season, water vapor pressure from January to December, accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃, pH value, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and annual mean temperature are the core environmental factors determining the suitability of corn.

     

/

返回文章
返回