全球木薯价值链演变趋势与产业竞争力分析

Analysis of evolution trend and industrial competitiveness of global cassava value chain

  • 摘要: 【目的】评估全球木薯价值链发展趋势与国际竞争力状况,为提升我国木薯产业全球价值链地位和国际竞争力提供经验借鉴和参考依据。【方法】基于2000—2023年全球及木薯主产国的木薯生产和贸易数据,运用价值链分析绘制木薯价值链图谱,探讨非洲国家、东南亚国家及我国的木薯价值链演变趋势,然后进一步运用国际竞争力评价方法对全球主要木薯生产国、出口国的木薯生产和贸易竞争力进行测度。【结果】非洲国家的木薯生产综合比较优势明显高于其他地区,其中刚果(金)自2005年以来一直是木薯生产综合比较优势最强的国家;从2010年起,除了尼日利亚和加纳外,刚果(金)、安哥拉、莫桑比克等非洲木薯主产国的木薯生产综合比较优势总体上呈下降趋势。在东南亚国家中,柬埔寨的木薯生产综合比较优势从2010年开始领先于泰国、越南、印度尼西亚等木薯主产国;至2023年,柬埔寨的木薯生产比较优势(SA)指数分别是泰国、越南、印度尼西亚木薯SA指数的2.09、5.16和13.60倍。从全球五大木薯干片出口国的显性比较优势(RCA)指数来看,2015—2023年泰国、柬埔寨、越南和哥斯达黎加的木薯干片RCA指数都大于2.500,具备极强的国际竞争力,但哥斯达黎加、泰国和越南的木薯干片RCA指数总体上呈下降趋势,木薯贸易占其国际商品贸易的份额逐步缩小。从全球五大木薯淀粉出口国的RCA指数来看,泰国、老挝和印度尼西亚的木薯淀粉RCA指数从2020年起总体上呈上升趋势,至2023年,泰国的木薯淀粉RCA指数(53.708)上升了32.39%,老挝的木薯淀粉RCA指数(113.052)上升趋势更明显,上升了2.85倍。我国木薯不具备生产和贸易优势,但具备庞大的市场规模优势,在科技研发和加工增值方面优势突出。【建议】我国木薯价值链升级及竞争力提升的路径选择:(1)以国家战略需求为导向,拓宽产业价值链;(2)提高产品附加值,在价值链中高端环节发力;(3)发挥综合比较优势,加快木薯价值链全球战略布局。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】 This study aimed to assess the development trends and international competitiveness of the global cassava value chain, providing empirical references for enhancing China’s position and competitiveness in the global cassava industry.【Method】 Based on cassava production and trade data of global and major producing countries from 2000 to 2023, a value chain analysis was conducted to map the cassava value chain. The evolution trends of cassava value chains in Africa countries, southeast Asia countries, and China were discussed. Additionally, international competitiveness evaluation methods were applied to measure the production and trade competitiveness of major global cassava producing and exporting countries.【Result】 African countries demonstrated significantly higher comprehensive comparative advantages in cassava production compared to other regions. Notably, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) had maintained the highest comparative advantage in cassava production since 2005. Since 2010, except for Nigeria and Ghana, the synthetic advantages of comparative production in major African cassava producing countries such as DR Congo, Angola, and Mozambique had generally shown a declining trend. Among southeast Asian countries, Cambodia’s comprehensive comparative advantage in cassava production began to surpass that of major cassava producing nations such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2010. By 2023, Cambodia’s synthetic advantage (SA) index of comparative production of cassava was 2.09, 5.16, and 13.60 times higher than those of Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, respectively. The revealed comparative advantage (RCA) analysis of the world’s top five dried cassava chips expor-ting countries revealed that Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Costa Rica maintained RCA indexes above 2.500 from 2015 to 2023, demonstrating strong global competitiveness. However, the RCA indexes of Costa Rica, Thailand, and Vietnam showed a declining trend overall, with cassava trade gradually shrinking their share in international commodity trade. Among the top five global cassava starch exporting countries, Thailand, Laos, and Indonesia had seen rising RCA indexes since 2020. By 2023, Thailand’s cassava starch RCA index (53.708) increased by 32.39%, while Laos’ index (113.052) showed a greater increasing trend by surging 2.85-fold. China lacked production and trade advantages in cassava but possessed a massive market scale and excelled in technological research and development as well as value-added processing. 【Suggestion】 Paths for upgrading China’s cassava value chain and enhancing competitiveness are: (1)expand industrial and value chains guided by national strategic needs; (2)boost product value-added by focusing on mid-to-high ends of value chain; (3)leverage comprehensive comparative advantages to accelerate global strategic layout of the cassava global value chain.

     

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