基于GTAP模型模拟分析RCEP关税减让对我国农产品进口格局的影响

Effects of tariff concessions under the RCEP on the import pattern of agricultural products of China based on the GTAP model

  • 摘要: 【目的】 明确区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)关税减让对我国重要农产品造成的结构性冲击,为我国在对外开放新格局下构建开放型粮食安全保障体系提供参考依据。【方法】 基于RCEP实际签署的关税承诺表测算RCEP成员国间的实际农产品关税减让水平,并通过GTAP模型模拟分析RCEP关税减让对我国稻米、小麦等农产品进口格局的影响。【结果】 RCEP协议生效后,我国对其他RCEP成员国的果蔬产品、糖类产品、动物产品、奶类产品等农产品的关税减让绝对幅度较大,对油料油脂的关税减让幅度次之,对小麦和稻米的关税减让则维持在原有水平(65.0%)。其他RCEP成员国对我国农产品设置的进口关税税率总体上较低,呈现出日本/韩国>东盟国家>澳大利亚/新西兰的区域格局,以及稻米>奶类制品>糖类制品>果蔬产品>水产品>其他谷物>小麦的品种结构,且随RCEP协议生效时间的推移有所下降。RCEP关税减让将导致我国主要农产品尤其是小麦、稻米和动物产品的进口全面增长,不仅对绝大部分其他RCEP成员国农产品的进口大幅增长,对非RCEP成员国农产品的进口也有一定增长,但增长幅度逐渐回落,具体表现为在RCEP协议生效第1年、第10年和第20年,我国对美国、欧盟及其他国家和地区农产品的进口增长幅度分别由28.3%降至24.4%、30.4%降至22.3%、22.1%降至17.9%。RCEP关税减让在一定程度上拓宽了我国农产品的进口来源,提升了主要农产品的国内供应能力,但稻米和小麦进口规模的大幅增长将给国内粮食生产带来竞争压力,可能导致我国对稻米和小麦的进口管理及粮食安全保障目标面临全新的挑战。【建议】以区域农业合作稳定粮食供给,通过供应链、技术和政策多面协同,深耕RCEP区域农业合作;以农产品贸易国际规则控制粮食进口风险,加强稻麦进口管理与生产支持,牢守国家粮食安全底线。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】 This study aimed to identify the structural impacts of tariff concessions under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on key agricultural products in China, providing a reference for establi-shing an open-oriented food security system under the new pattern of opening-up. 【Method】 Based on the actual tariff commitment schedules signed under the RCEP, the actual levels of agricultural tariff concessions among RCEP members were calculated. The impacts of tariff concessions under the RCEP on China’s import patterns for agricultural products such as rice and wheat were stimulated and analyzed based on the GTAP model. 【Result】 After the RCEP took effect, the absolute magnitudes of China’s tariff concessions on agricultural products including fruits and vegetables, sugar products, animal products, and dairy products for other RCEP member states were relatively large, followed by concessions on oilseeds and oils , while tariff concessions on wheat and rice remained at the original level (65.0%). The import tariff rates of agricultural products set by other RCEP member states for China were generally low, showing a regional pattern of Japan/Korea>ASEAN countries>Australia/New Zealand, and a product structure of rice>dairy products>sugar products> fruits and vegetables>aquatic products>other cereals>wheat. These rates declined as the RCEP agreements were implemented. Tariff concessions under the RCEP led to comprehensive growth in China’s imports of major agricultural products, especially rice, wheat, and animal products; China’s imports of agricultural products increased significantly from most other RCEP member states, with moderate growth also observed from non-RCEP member states, although the growth rates gradually declined. In the 1st, 10th, and 20th years after implementation of RCEP, the growth rate of China’s agricultural imports from the US, EU, and other countries or regions decreased from 28.3% to 24.4%, from 30.4% to 22.3%, and from 22.1% to 17.9%, respectively. The tariff concessions under the RCEP broadened China’s agricultural import sources to some extent and enhanced the domestic supply capacity of major agricultural products, but the substantial increase in rice and wheat imports would create competitive pressure on domestic grain production, posing new challenges to China’s import management of rice and wheat and the food security goals. 【Suggestion】The grain supply should be stabilized through regional agricultural cooperation, and RCEP agricultural collaboration should be deepened via supply chains, technology, and policy coordination. Grain import risks should be mitigated by leveraging the international agricultural trade rules, and the import management and production support for rice and wheat should be strengthened to safeguard the bottom line of food security for China.

     

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