农村集体经济组织数字化转型的影响因素研究

Research on the influencing factors for the digital transformation of rural collective economic organizations

  • 摘要: 目的 明确农村集体经济组织数字化转型的关键影响因素及各影响因素间的耦合关系,为推动农村集体经济组织数字化转型提供参考依据。方法 在构建影响因素综合指标体系的基础上,利用决策试验和评价试验法(DEMATEL)-解释结构模型(ISM)-贝叶斯网络(BN)模型对农村集体经济组织数字化转型影响因素的重要性及因果关系进行分析,划分影响因素的层次结构及挖掘各层级因素间的内在关联,并推算出影响因素的最大致因链和敏感度,进一步验证影响因素间的耦合关系。结果 政府引导维度中的政策扶持和财政补贴具有较高的原因度,分别为2.085和2.156,且位于多层递阶结构模型的深层,是农村集体经济组织数字化转型的深层根源影响因素,对指标系统中的其他因素有重大影响。数字产业发展维度中的农业数字化规模及数字化基础设施建设维度中的数字创新基地数量和邮电通信业发展水平具有较高的中心度,分别为20.182、19.794和19.694,且位于多层递阶结构模型的中层,在指标系统中发挥承上启下的作用。数字人才维度和社会力量支持维度中相关影响因素的原因度均为负值,位于多层递阶结构模型的表层,对数字化转型有直接影响。农村集体经济组织数字化转型的发生概率为50.6%,表明当前农村集体经济组织实现数字化转型的概率并不高,数字化建设尚处于起步阶段,存在较大的提升空间;经BN模型逆向推理得知,推动农村集体经济组织数字化转型的最大致因链为政策扶持→数字创新基地数量→金融机构资金支持→农村集体经济组织数字化转型。【建议】根据农村集体经济组织数字化转型的关键影响因素及各影响因素间的内在关联,提出以下对策建议:(1)加大地方政府的政策支持与财政补贴力度;(2)提高农村地区的数字化基础设施建设水平;(3)汇聚创新资源推动农村地区数字产业发展;(4)强化农村集体经济组织数字人才队伍建设;(5)吸引社会力量参与农村集体经济组织数字化建设。

     

    Abstract: Objective This study aimed to elucidate the key influencing factors of digital transformation of rural collective economic organizations and the coupling relationship between influencing factors, and provide a reference for promoting the digital transformation of rural collective economic organizations.Method On the basis of constructing a comprehensive index system of influencing factors, the (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) DEMATEL-Interpretative Structural Modeling(ISM)-Bayesian Network(BN) model was used to analyze the importance and causal relationship of the influencing factors of digital transformation of rural collective economic organizations. The hierarchical structure of influencing factors was divided and the intrinsic correlation between factors at different levels was explored to project the biggest causal chain and sensitivity of influencing factors for further verifying the coupling relationship between influencing factors.Result Policy support and fiscal subsidies, within the dimension of government guidance, exhibited strong causal relationships, with values of 2.085 and 2.156, respectively. Both were positioned at the deep level of the multilevel hierarchical structural model, indicating that they served as fundamental drivers of the digital transformation of rural collective economic organizations and exerted significant influence on other factors within the indicator system. High centralities were found in the scale of agricultural digitalization within the dimension of digital industry development, and the number of digital innovation bases, and development level of the postal and telecommunications industry within the the dimension of digital infrastructure establishment, which were 20.182, 19.794, and 19.694, respectively; located in the middle layer of the multilevel hierarchical structure model, they served as a critical bridge in the indicator system. The dimensions of digital talent support and social force support exhibited negative causal degrees of the influen-cing factors; located at the surface of the multilevel hierarchical structure model, both directly influenced digital transformation. The probability of digital transformation of rural collective economic organizations was 50.6%, indicating that the current probability of digital transformation for rural collective economic organizations remained relatively low, and digital construction was still in its early stage, leaving considerable room for improvement. According to backward inference by BN model, the biggest causal chain for promoting the digital transformation of rural collective economic organizations was policy support→the number of digital innovation bases→financial support from institutions→digital transformation of rural collective economic organizations. 【Suggestion】Based on the key influencing factors of digital transformation of rural collective economic organizations and the intrinsic relationships between influencing factors, the following countermeasures and suggestions are proposed: (1)strengthen policy support and financial subsidies from local governments; (2)improve the level of digital infrastructure construction in rural areas; (3)gather innovative resources to promote the development of digital industries in rural areas; (4)enhance the cultivation of digital talent team for rural collective economic organizations; (5)attract social forces to participate in the digital transformation process of rural collective economic organizations.

     

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