新型城镇化对我国农业碳排放强度的空间效应研究

Research on the spatial effect of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity in China

  • 摘要: 目的 明确新型城镇化对农业碳排放强度的空间效应,为我国农业碳减排与城镇发展提供参考依据,同时为制定农业碳减排战略提供新思路。方法 在深度解析新型城镇化对农业碳排放强度影响机理的基础上,利用2012—2021年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)(由于数据不可得性,未将港澳台地区纳入研究)的面板数据,基于作物种植、畜牧养殖及农业生产活动三大碳源对农业碳排放强度进行测算,再通过空间杜宾模型(SDM)分析新型城镇化对农业碳排放强度的影响。结果 人口城镇化、社会城镇化、经济城镇化和生态城镇化直接促进农业碳排放强度降低,同时其内在空间依赖性决定了空间城镇化的表现形式,并通过土地要素使用空闲、数字经济与信息技术加持、优质农产品需求导向的传递形式促进农业现代化、绿色化发展,进而降低农业碳排放强度。我国农业碳排放呈上升—下降—上升的宏观演变特征,且存在一定的阶段性差异,具体表现:2012—2016年作物种植<畜牧养殖<农业生产活动;2017—2020年畜牧养殖<作物种植<农业生产活动;2021年农业生产活动<作物种植<畜牧养殖。SDM模型时间固定效应分析结果表明,农业产业结构和农村劳动力对农业碳排放强度呈极显著负向影响(P<0.01,下同),而支农水平和农村机械化程度对农业碳排放强度呈极显著正向影响。此外,空间溢出效应分析发现,新型城镇化对本地区和邻近地区的农业碳排放强度具有极显著抑制作用,自然环境对本地区和邻近地区的农业碳排放强度具有促进作用,农业机械化程度则对邻近地区的农业碳排放强度具有极显著抑制作用。【建议】鉴于新型城镇化对农业碳排放强度具有抑制作用,建议从改善农业产业结构、推进农业碳减排技术及提升城镇化等方面着手制定碳减排策略,具体包括:(1)加强农业碳排放技术研究与交流,全面推行低碳减排;(2)合理控制农业生产要素投入,促进绿色农业发展;(3)推进新型城镇化合理布局,提升土地利用效率。

     

    Abstract: Objective This study aimed to elucidate the spatial effect of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity, provide evidence for reducing agricultural carbon emission and supporting urban development in China, and concomitantly offer new approaches for formulating strategies of agricultural carbon emission reduction.Method Based on the in-depth analysis of the mechanism of effects of new urbanization on the agricultural carbon emission intensity, the panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2012 to 2021 were collected (Hongkong, Macao, and Taiwan were excluded for data inaccessibility). The agricultural carbon emission intensity was calculated based on three major carbon sources: crop cultivation, livestock farming, and agricultural production activities. Subsequently, the spatial Durbin model (SDM) was employed to analyze the effects of new urbanization on agricultural carbon emission intensity.Result Population urbanization, social urbanization, economic urbanization, and ecological urbanization directly contributed to reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity. Meanwhile, their intrinsic spatial dependency determined the manifestations of spatial urbanization. Furthermore, through the transmission mechanisms—land factor underutilization, digital economy and information technology support, and demand-driven orientation toward high-quality agricultural products—also promoted agricultural modernization and green development, thereby reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity. The agricultural carbon emissions in China exhibited a macro-level evolution characteristic of “rising-falling-rising” with differences in every stage: from 2012 to 2016, crop plantation < livestock farming < agricultural production activity; from 2017 to 2020, livestock farming < crop plantation < agricultural production activity; and in 2021, agricultural production activity < crop plantation < livestock farming. The temporal fixed effect analysis based on SDM model revealed that the agricultural industrial structure and rural labor force had a highly significant negative impact on agricultural carbon emission intensity (P<0.01, the same below), while the agricultural support level and degree of agricultural mechanization had a highly significant positive impact on agricultural carbon emission intensity. Moreover, the spatial spillover effect analysis found that new urbanization had a highly significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity in the local or neighboring regions, natural environment enhanced agricultural carbon emission intensity in both local and neighboring regions, while the degree of agricultural mechanization had a highly significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity in neighboring regions. 【Suggestion】Given that new urbanization could inhibit agricultural carbon emission intensity, it is recommended to formulate carbon reduction strategies by improving the agricultural industrial structure, advancing agricultural carbon emission reduction technologies, and enhancing urbanization, the specific measures include: (1) strengthen research and exchange on agricultural carbon emission reduction technologies to reduce low-carbon emission comprehensively; (2) control the input of agricultural production factors to promote green agricultural development; (3) advance the layout of new urbanization to enhance land use efficiency.

     

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