1961—2021年世界油菜生产时空演变特征及我国油菜优势度分析
Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of world rape production during 1961-2021 and dominance analysis of rape production in China
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摘要: 【目的】分析世界油菜生产的时空演变格局,为我国油菜产业的可持续发展提供参考。【方法】基于联合国粮农组织(FAO)发布的1961—2021年世界油菜收获面积、单产和总产量等相关数据,运用一元线性回归模型和优势指标体系,分析世界油菜生产上时空变化特征。【结果】世界油菜发展在1980和2000年出现明显的时空演变特征,整个发展过程可分为3个阶段。总体来看,世界油菜生产重心始终集中于亚洲、欧洲和美洲,且收获面积、单产和总产量均呈稳定增长的趋势。其中,阶段Ⅰ(1961—1980年),亚洲总产量高于欧洲15.2%,尽管亚洲的收获面积比欧洲高460.9%,但欧洲的单产比亚洲高250.7%;阶段Ⅱ(1981—2000年)和阶段Ⅲ(2001—2021年),亚洲总产量仍高于欧洲,且在阶段Ⅱ收获面积增长明显。整个过程美洲收获面积中等,大洋洲和非洲的收获面积和总产量占世界的比例较小。同时,在阶段Ⅰ,中国、加拿大和印度等9个国家的油菜总产量占世界的89.7%,收获面积占世界的92.5%;阶段Ⅱ,加拿大和中国的油菜发展最为迅速;阶段Ⅲ,仅加拿大收获面积和总产量增幅大。此外,巴基斯坦和瑞典在阶段Ⅰ和阶段Ⅱ出现油菜发展退步的现象,德国、中国和英国在阶段Ⅲ也出现此现象。贡献度分析表明,与加拿大和印度等主产国相比,我国油菜生产的效率和规模上均不具备优势,但是油菜生产效率优势在每个阶段依次递增。【建议】我国需要充分利用先进的信息技术和自动化设备监测油菜生产过程,扩大油菜的种植比例和收获面积,同时还要注重油菜价值发掘,开发深加工产品,加大集约化、规模化种植,采取合理的种植模式和施肥处理,从而进一步提升我国油菜的竞争力。Abstract: 【Objective】The temporal and spatial evolution pattern of rape production in the world was analyzed to provide theoretical support for the sustainable development of rape industry in China.【Method】Based on the related data of world rape harvesting area,yield per unit area and total yield during 1961-2021 released by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO),the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of world rape production were analyzed by using the unitary linear regression model and the dominant index system.【Result】The development of rape in the world showed obvious spatial and temporal variation characteristics around 1980 and 2000,and the whole development process could be divided into three stages. Generally speaking,the focus of rape production in the world has always been concentrated in Asia,Europe and America,harvesting area,yield per unit area and total yield have shown a steady growth trend. In the stageⅠ(1961-1980),the total yield in Asia was 15.2% higher than that in Europe. Although the harvesting area in Asia was 460.9% higher than that in Europe,the yield per unit area in Europe was 250.7% higher than that in Asia. In the stage Ⅱ(1981-2000)and the stage Ⅲ(2001-2021),the total yield of Asia was still higher than that of Europe,and the harvesting area in stage Ⅱ has increased greatly. In the whole process,the harvesting area in America was medium,and the percentages of harvesting area and total yield of Oceania and Africa to the world small. At the same time,in the stageⅠ,the total yield of rape in nine countries,including China,Canada and India,accounted for 89.7% of the world,and the harvesting area accounted for 92.5% of the world. In the stage Ⅱ,rape in Canada and China developed the most rapidly. In the stage Ⅲ,only harvesting area and total yield of Canada increased greatly. In addition,in Pakistan and Sweden,the development of rape declined in the stage Ⅰand stage Ⅱ,and in Germany,China and Britain this phenomenon also appeared in the stage Ⅲ. The contribution analysis showed that,compared with major producing countries such as Canada and India,China had no advantages in efficiency and scale of rape production,but its efficiency advantages were increasing at each stage in turn.【Suggestion】China needs to make full use of advanced information technology and automation equipment to monitor the production process of rape,expand the planting proportion and harvesting area of rape,and at the same time,pay attention to exploring the value of rape,develop deep-processed products,increase intensive and large-scale planting,adopt reasonable planting mode and fertilization treatment,so as to further enhance the competitiveness of rape in China.