基于TOPSIS—熵权法的我国直辖市农机社会化服务发展水平评价

Evaluation of socialized agricultural machinery services development level in municipalities directly under the central government of China-Based on TOPSIS-entropy weight method

  • 摘要: 【目的】评价我国直辖市农机社会化服务发展水平,分析其社会化服务体系的协调性和障碍度,为我国农业从传统农业向现代农业转型发展提供参考依据。【方法】在查阅大量文献和走访相关领域专家的基础上,应用逼近理想点排序法(TOPSIS)—熵权法确立含有5个一级指标22个二级指标的我国直辖市农机社会化服务发展水平评价指标体系,并构建其协调性和障碍度模型,从一级指标和二级指标的视角,分析我国直辖市农机社会化服务发展水平各维度的协调性和主要制约因素。【结果】在2016—2020年,我国直辖市的农机社会化服务发展水平基本上处于初级发展阶段,其中,天津市的农机社会化服务发展水平最高,处于初级发展阶段后期;从概率论角度看,上海市的农机社会化服务发展水平高于北京市,重庆市的农机社会化服务发展水平低于北京市和上海市。耦合协调度模型分析结果表明,2016—2020年重庆市和北京市的农机社会化服务发展水平处于勉强协调等级,天津市处于初级协调或以上等级,上海市处于勉强协调及以上等级;天津市处于第一梯队,上海市处于第二梯队,北京市和重庆市处于第三梯队。障碍度模型分析结果表明,从一级指标角度分析2016—2020年影响我国各直辖市农机社会化服务评价体系子系统的主要因素发现,农机社会化服务作业水平指数的障碍度处于主要位次,农机社会化服务作业硬件信息化指数的障碍度处于最后位次;以二级指标中障碍度排名前5位的主要因素进行分析发现,农机技术推广经费投入比重低是主要障碍因素;每年的前5项障碍因素对障碍度的贡献总和均在50.0%及以上。【建议】我国各直辖市应进一步加大农机技术推广经费的投入力度,并向新型、优质、智能化农机具倾斜;做好土地整理,采用土地托管、土地流转、土地租赁、服务外包的规模化、集约化经营模式;大力发展节水型、生态友好型立体式农业;大力拓宽农机社会化服务渠道,培育壮大各类农机社会化服务主体;注重农机技术人员技能培训,引导农机大户生产、经营步入良性发展轨道,以实现区域现代农业的高效可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】The purpose of the study was to evaluate the development level of socialized agricultural machinery services in municipalities directly under the central government of China,to analyze the coordination and obstacle degree of its socialized service system,and to provide the reference basis for the present situation of the transformation and development of agriculture from the tradational agriculture to modern agriculture in China.【Method】Based on extensive literature review and interviews with experts in relevant fields,the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)-entropy weight method was used to establish an indicator system for evaluating the development level of socialized agricultural machinery services in municipalities directly under the central government of China,which included 5 grade one indexes and 22 grade two indexes. In the meantime,its coordination and obstacle degree model was constructed and the coordination and the main restriction factors of the dimensions of the development level of socialized agricultural machinery services in the municipalities directly under the central government of China were analyzed from the perspectives of grade one indexes and grade two indexes.【Result】The development level of socialized agricultural machinery services in municipalities directly under the central government of China was basically in the primary stage of development between 2016 and 2020. Among them,the development level of socialized agricultural machinery services in Tianjin was the highest,and it was in the later stage of the primary development. From the perspective of probability theory,the development level of socialized agricultural machinery services in Shanghai was higher than that in Beijing, while the development level of socialized agricultural machinery services in Chongqing was lower than that in Beijing and Shanghai. The results of the analysis of the coupling coordination degree model showed that in 2016-2020,the development levels of socialized agricultural machinery services in Chongqing and Beijing were at a barely coordinated level. Tianjin was at the primary coordination level or above,and Shanghai was at a barely coordinated or above level. Tianjin was in the first tier,Shanghai was in the second tier,and Beijing and Chongqing were in the third tier. By introducing an obstacle degree model,the main influencing factors of the evaluation system subsystem of socialized agricultural machinery services in various municipalities directly under the central government of China from 2016 to 2020 were analyzed from the perspective of grade one index,it was found that the obstacle degree of the socialized agricultural machinery service operation level index was in the main position,and the obstacle degree of the socialized agricultural machinery service operation hardware information index was in the last position. The main factors that ranked among the top five in terms of obstacle degree in grade two indexes were analyzed. It was found that the low proportion of agricultural machinery technology promotion funds was the main factor. The top five obstacle factors contributed a total of 50.0% or more to the obstacle level in each year.SuggestionThe municipalities directly under the central government of China should further increase the investment strength of the promotion funds of agricultural machaninery technology,and to incline towards the new type,high quality and efficient agricultural machinery. They should complete land consolidation,adopt the scale up and intensification managemental models of land trusteeship,land transfer,land lease and service outsourcing. They should develop vigorously water-saving type,eco-friendly three-dimensional agriculture. Broaden vigorously the route of the socialized services for agricultural machinery,cultivate and strength the kinds of main body of socialized services for agricultural machinery. They should pay attention to the skill training of agricultural machinery technicians and guide agricultural machinery operators into positive developmental track for production and management,so as to achieve the efficient and sustainable development of regional modern agriculture.

     

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