基于MaxEnt模型的贵州特有植物普定杜鹃花潜在适生区预测

Prediction of the potential suitable area of endemic plant Rhododendron pudingense in Guizhou Province based on MaxEnt model

  • 摘要: 【目的】研究普定杜鹃花在贵州省的潜在适生区,为后期研究普定杜鹃花提供分布数据支撑,为其引种区规划提供依据。【方法】收集野外实地调查记录的普定杜鹃花GPS定位信息,利用MaxEnt模型模拟普定杜鹃花在贵州省的潜在适生区,综合利用贡献率和刀切法检验对气候、地形和土壤因子进行分析。【结果】基于MaxEnt模拟的普定杜鹃花潜在适生区精确度很高,其中测试数据AUC值为0.970。普定杜鹃花的中、高适生区主要分布于安顺市、黔南州和黔西南州。影响普定杜鹃花分布的主导环境变量是最湿月降水量、海拔、最冷月最低温、昼夜温差月均值、坡向和最干季降水量,贡献率分别为33.7%、16.8%、12.7%、12.7%、11.1%和3.6%。普定杜鹃花在贵州省的总适生区面积占全省总面积的12.2%,占地面积约2.15万km2,其中高、中、低适生区分别为0.22万、0.46万和1.47万km2; 2070s未来2种气候情景下(SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5),普定杜鹃花潜在适生区面积将增大,并有向东、向北方向延伸的趋势。【建议】优先考虑适生区内普定杜鹃花分布点调查及标本采集,根据适生区分布情况,合理规划适宜的种植区,有效推动普定杜鹃花的保育工作。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】 The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential suitable area of Rhododendron Pudingense in Guizhou Province,to provide distribution data support for the later research of R. Pudingense,and to provide a basis for the planning of its introduction area.【Method】 The GPS location data of R. Pudingense recorded in field surveys was collected. The MaxEnt model was used to simulate potential suitable area of R. pudingense in Guizhou Province,and the contribution rate and Jackknife method were used to to analyze climate,terrain,and soil characteristics in-depth.【Result】 The accuracy of potential suitable area of R. pudingense simulated by MaxEnt software was very high,with an AUC value of test data as 0.970. The moderately and highly suitable areas of R. pudingense were primarily distributed in Anshun City,Qiannan Prefecture and Qianxinan Prefecture. The Jackknife method test and contribution rate results revealed that the dominant environment variable affecting the distribution of R. pudingense were precipitation of the wettest month, altitude,minimum temperature of the coldest month,monthly mean value of the temperature difference between day and night,slope direction and precipitation of the driest quarter,and their contribution rates were 33.7%,16.8%,12.7%, 12.7%,11.1% and 3.6%,respectively. The total suitable area of R. pudingense in Guizhou Province covered about 21500 km2,accounted for 12.2% of the total area of the province,of which the highly,moderately and lowly suitable areas accounted for 2200,4600 and 14700 km2 respectively. The potential suitable area of R. pudingense would grow and extend eastward and northward under the two climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5)for the 2070s.【Suggestion】 In order to successfully promote the conservation of R. pudingense,investigation of R. pudingense distribution sites,specimen collection in acceptable locations,and appropriate planting areas planned according to the distribution of suitable areas, should all be given priority.

     

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