基于Logit-Tobit的河南省粮食主产区农地流转影响因素分析

Influencing factors of rural land transfer in major grainproducing areas of Henan based on Logit-Tobit model

  • 摘要: 【目的】探索农民农地流转行为和规模的影响因素,为推进粮食主产区农地流转和农业适度规模经营提供政策依据。【方法】基于河南省8县(市)问卷调研数据,选取户主特征、家庭经营特征、区域经济特征3个方面11个具体变量,构建Logit模型分析变量对农户转出和转入行为的影响,再利用Tobit模型对转出和转入实际规模影响因素进行进一步分析。【结果】影响农户农地转入和转出的因素不尽相同,影响流转行为和流转规模的影响因素基本相同,但显著水平有比较明显的差别。对农地转出呈正向显著影响的主要因素有非农收入比重、流转期限、本村土地租金及村集体是否组织流转等,其中非农收入比重、流转期限对转出行为和转出规模均在5%统计水平下显著。对农地转入呈负向显著影响的主要因素有非农收入比重、本村土地租金,呈正向显著影响的有流转期限、家庭农业劳动力数量、家庭是否拥有大中型农业机械、地区类型等,其中非农收入比重、流转期限、家庭农业劳动力数量等变量对转入行为和转入规模均在5%统计水平下显著。【建议】从农地流转主要影响因素着力,推动农村劳动力从事二三产业,加大对新型农业经营主体财政金融等政策支持力度,发挥集体经济组织等中介组织中介、合同管理作用,适时合理调整租金水平,从而促进农地流转和农业适度规模经营。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective】Influencing factors in farmers’cultivated land transfer behavior and scale were analyzed to provide a policy basis for promoting rural land transfer and agricultural moderate scale management.【Method】Based on survey data from 8 counties(cities)in Henan and using 11 specific variables derived from characteristics of the householder,household management and regional economic characteristics,the Logit model was used to analyze whether farmers were transferring out or transferring in and the Tobit model was used to further analyze influencing factors of the actual scale of the transfers.【Result】The result showed that the factors affecting transfer-out and transfer-in were different. However,the factors affecting transfer behavior between transfer scales are basically the same,but with different significance levels. The main factors identified to have a significant positive influence on transfer-out were non-agricultural income, transfer period,land rent and the dummy variable of village collective organizing transfer. Of these,the proportion of nonagricultural income and transfer period had a significant level of 5% on transfer-out behavior and scale. The main factors that had negative significant influence on transfer-in were non-agricultural income and land rent,while positive significant influence were transfer period,family agricultural labor force,the dummy variable of family owning large-medium ized agricultural machinery and the region type. Of these,the independent variables including the proportion of non-agricultural income,transfer period and labor force had a significant level of 5% on transfer-in behavior and scale.【Suggestion】 Therefore,in order to promote rural land transfer and appropriate scale operation,the government should focus on these main influential factors and promote rural labor force to engage in secondary and tertiary industries,increase financial and other supportive measures for new agricultural business entities,give full play to the intermediary and contract management role of collective economic organizations and to adjust the rent level timely and reasonably.

     

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